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Fitch also expects management to step back from offshore exploration activities medium term. However, Fitch recognizes that the Duvernay and Montney's earlier-stage of development and Eagle Ford's operational momentum loss will likely require time and capital to achieve and/or re-establish their growth profiles. Credit metrics have increased through-the-cycle due a combination of lower oil & gas prices and, during Q1 2016, higher gross debt levels. Debt/EBITDA increased year-over-year to 1.9x for yearend 2015 compared to 0.8x in 2014. The Fitch-calculated debt/LTM EBITDA, debt/1p reserves, debt/proved developed (PD) reserves, and debt/flowing barrel were approximately 2.5x, $4.43/boe, $7.16/boe, and $17,442, respectively, as of March 31, 2016. These credit metrics are generally consistent with or better than similarly rated North American E&P peers. MEASURED OUTSPEND, WIDER CASH FLOW METRICS FORECAST Fitch's base case projects that Murphy will be approximately $200-$300 million FCF negative in 2016.
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